Opinions on Entry Draft- 2007

Philippe27 · Guru

RE: Opinions on Entry Draft- 2007

VancouverGM · Senior Member

Philippe27 wrote:

LAKings wrote:

Philippe27 wrote:

I don't get why you'd pick Leland Irving, Jonathan Bernier or Semen Varlamov in the 1st round. Best case scenario they'll start helping your team in 3 years, likely 4 or 5.

Other than that can't say I really have any comments, don't know too much about prospects.

I think you kind of answered your first statement with your 2nd one. Varlamov has already signed with Washington. When Irving comes down the pipes in 3-seasons, I'll have a dirt cheap elite starter if his development continues going the way it did.

My point was look at the young goalies that were drafted in the 1st round in previous drafts and what they will bring in the next BRHL2 season:

1997: Luongo, Noronen, Damphousse (1 very good, 2 useless)
1998: DesRochers, Chouinard (2 useless)
1999: Finley, Ouellet, Ahonen (3 useless)
2000: DiPietro, Krahn (1 very good, 1 useless)
2001: Leclaire, Blackburn, Bacashihua, Munro (3 backups, 1 useless)
2002: Lehtonen, Ward, Toivonen (1 very good, 1 alright, 1 useless)
2003: Fleury (1 very good)
2004: Montoya, Dubnyk, Schwarz, Schneider (all useless)
Basically there are 4 very good goalies in there, all were drafted top 4, all of whom took 4 years to become serviceable starters. After that you have 1 of the other 16 who would be an ok starter for you this BRHL2 season which is Ward at 76 ovr.
Like I said I don't know that much about these specific goalies but I do know there was quite a bit of hype about the others when they were drafted and basically none of them have done anything. They may turn out but odds aren't on your side, good luck.

-- Edited by Philippe27 at 04:54, 2007-07-31

I think you the same odds in taking a goalie later in the draft. Henrik Lunqvist :)

LAKings · Senior Member

Philippe27 wrote:

LAKings wrote:

Philippe27 wrote:

I don't get why you'd pick Leland Irving, Jonathan Bernier or Semen Varlamov in the 1st round. Best case scenario they'll start helping your team in 3 years, likely 4 or 5.

Other than that can't say I really have any comments, don't know too much about prospects.

I think you kind of answered your first statement with your 2nd one. Varlamov has already signed with Washington. When Irving comes down the pipes in 3-seasons, I'll have a dirt cheap elite starter if his development continues going the way it did.

My point was look at the young goalies that were drafted in the 1st round in previous drafts and what they will bring in the next BRHL2 season:

1997: Luongo, Noronen, Damphousse (1 very good, 2 useless)
1998: DesRochers, Chouinard (2 useless)
1999: Finley, Ouellet, Ahonen (3 useless)
2000: DiPietro, Krahn (1 very good, 1 useless)
2001: Leclaire, Blackburn, Bacashihua, Munro (3 backups, 1 useless)
2002: Lehtonen, Ward, Toivonen (1 very good, 1 alright, 1 useless)
2003: Fleury (1 very good)
2004: Montoya, Dubnyk, Schwarz, Schneider (all useless)
Basically there are 4 very good goalies in there, all were drafted top 4, all of whom took 4 years to become serviceable starters. After that you have 1 of the other 16 who would be an ok starter for you this BRHL2 season which is Ward at 76 ovr.
Like I said I don't know that much about these specific goalies but I do know there was quite a bit of hype about the others when they were drafted and basically none of them have done anything. They may turn out but odds aren't on your side, good luck.

-- Edited by Philippe27 at 04:54, 2007-07-31

wow man.. all of those goalies are still on track to be starters and are top prospects in their organization. There are just as many forwards that bust than goalies.

WildJamie · Senior Member

The point is though, that even the goalies that do make it take several years. Not many goalies under the age of 25 have much of an impact in the NHL, and therefore have bad rates in this league for several years plus one.
I also do not understand why NHL teams draft goalies in the first round (or at least the front half of the round). This will become even more useless as the UFA age in the NHL drops to 25 years old.

LAKings · Senior Member

The ufa age will hit 27.. thats the lowest its set to go right now. Just because a player is a UFA does not mean you can't lock him up long term before then.

Also, Guys like Bernier, Irving etc are all 19 early 20. Bernier and Varlamov both have a shot at making their NHL teams this year.. give them say 2 more years max and they are 22.. 5 years at least of a starting goaltender.

Besides.. these guys were not top 10 picks.. how many other prospects are going to be playing in the NHL by 21 that were not top 10? Most players take time to develop.. they don't all hit their ceiling as soon as Jordan Staal. You guys really don't see the big picture.

capsgm · Senior Member

Sabres_Luke wrote:

1) TB (from NYI) Jordan Staal
2) BUF Jonathan Toews
3) BUF (from LA) Erik Johnson
4) CHI(from NYR) Niklas Backstrom
5) BOS (from VAN) Phil Kessel
6) TOR (from SJ) Peter Mueller
7) STL Kyle Okposo
8) WAS Derek Brassard
9) MIN (from ATL) Michael Frolik
10) TOR James Sheppard
11) FLA (from CHI) Bryan Little
12)PHI Jonathan Bernier
13) NSH Ty Wishart
14) BUF (from PHI) Nikolai Kuleman
15) FLA Jiri Tlusty
16) NJ Chris Stewart
17) COL Claude Giroux
18) LA (from PIT) Leland Irving
19) CAR (from CGY) Michael Grabner
20) ANA (from NJ) Trevor Lewis
21) NSH (from BOS) Patrik Berglund
22) PIT (from FLA) Ivan Vishnevskiy
23) TOR (from ANA) Riku Helenius
24) PHX Mark Mittera
25) NJ(from DAL) Bobby Sanguinetti
26) BOS (from CLB) Jeff Petry
27) MTL Nick Foligno
28) TOR (from PHX) Daviv Fischer
29) TOR (from EDM) Semen Varlamov
30) LA (from TB) Michal Neuvirth

-- Edited by Sabres_Luke at 20:02, 2007-07-30

Steals: Mitera, Berglund
Busts: if I had to guess..Fishcer, Helenius
Overrated: Grbaner, Kulemin, Wishart
Biggest Impact next year: Johnson or Toews
Most valuable long term to BRHL: Johnson easily
Biggest Suprise: Kulemin
Players who should have been in the 1st but wasn't: Francois Bouchard
Player is not a bust, but went before they should have: Petry went bout 5 picks earlier than I woulda thought.

Philippe27 · Guru

LAKings wrote:

The ufa age will hit 27.. thats the lowest its set to go right now. Just because a player is a UFA does not mean you can't lock him up long term before then.

Also, Guys like Bernier, Irving etc are all 19 early 20. Bernier and Varlamov both have a shot at making their NHL teams this year.. give them say 2 more years max and they are 22.. 5 years at least of a starting goaltender.

Besides.. these guys were not top 10 picks.. how many other prospects are going to be playing in the NHL by 21 that were not top 10? Most players take time to develop.. they don't all hit their ceiling as soon as Jordan Staal. You guys really don't see the big picture.

I showed you all goalies who were drafted in the 1st round since 1997 and fine take out the 2004 guys who haven't developed and the obvious Top 5 picks. That means minimum 5 years after theyr were drafted you have 1 guy (Cam Ward) out of 14 picks between #6 and #30 that I'd consider a good goalie. That's 13 busts out of 14. Not only do they take a ver long time to develop but they rarely do develop.

And I do see the big picture, these guys not only take time but they rarely do hit thier ceiling.

capsgm · Senior Member

yah that is the main reason I didn't take Bernier at #8 Phil

LAKings · Senior Member

Philippe27 wrote:

LAKings wrote:

The ufa age will hit 27.. thats the lowest its set to go right now. Just because a player is a UFA does not mean you can't lock him up long term before then.

Also, Guys like Bernier, Irving etc are all 19 early 20. Bernier and Varlamov both have a shot at making their NHL teams this year.. give them say 2 more years max and they are 22.. 5 years at least of a starting goaltender.

Besides.. these guys were not top 10 picks.. how many other prospects are going to be playing in the NHL by 21 that were not top 10? Most players take time to develop.. they don't all hit their ceiling as soon as Jordan Staal. You guys really don't see the big picture.

I showed you all goalies who were drafted in the 1st round since 1997 and fine take out the 2004 guys who haven't developed and the obvious Top 5 picks. That means minimum 5 years after theyr were drafted you have 1 guy (Cam Ward) out of 14 picks between #6 and #30 that I'd consider a good goalie. That's 13 busts out of 14. Not only do they take a ver long time to develop but they rarely do develop.

And I do see the big picture, these guys not only take time but they rarely do hit thier ceiling.

You guys don't get it though.. just as many forwards and defenseman are going to bust as well in that range (10-30). You've already shown your knowledge by saying all of those 2004 picks are useless.. Its also about draft a goalie from the right team. If NJ drafted a goalie.. why would you want him on your team in the BRHL? Might be a while before he sees full time action. Where as LA (Bernier) has crap in goal and you know he's going to get a shot sooner or later.

Just look at Carey Price.. not all goalies take a long time to develop.

Sabres · Guru

Prospects arent worth the time and effort.

capsgm · Senior Member

LAKings wrote:

Philippe27 wrote:

LAKings wrote:

The ufa age will hit 27.. thats the lowest its set to go right now. Just because a player is a UFA does not mean you can't lock him up long term before then.

Also, Guys like Bernier, Irving etc are all 19 early 20. Bernier and Varlamov both have a shot at making their NHL teams this year.. give them say 2 more years max and they are 22.. 5 years at least of a starting goaltender.

Besides.. these guys were not top 10 picks.. how many other prospects are going to be playing in the NHL by 21 that were not top 10? Most players take time to develop.. they don't all hit their ceiling as soon as Jordan Staal. You guys really don't see the big picture.

I showed you all goalies who were drafted in the 1st round since 1997 and fine take out the 2004 guys who haven't developed and the obvious Top 5 picks. That means minimum 5 years after theyr were drafted you have 1 guy (Cam Ward) out of 14 picks between #6 and #30 that I'd consider a good goalie. That's 13 busts out of 14. Not only do they take a ver long time to develop but they rarely do develop.

And I do see the big picture, these guys not only take time but they rarely do hit thier ceiling.

You guys don't get it though.. just as many forwards and defenseman are going to bust as well in that range (10-30). You've already shown your knowledge by saying all of those 2004 picks are useless.. Its also about draft a goalie from the right team. If NJ drafted a goalie.. why would you want him on your team in the BRHL? Might be a while before he sees full time action. Where as LA (Bernier) has crap in goal and you know he's going to get a shot sooner or later.

Just look at Carey Price.. not all goalies take a long time to develop.

i think his point was that SO FAR the goalies from the 2004 draft are useless...4 years after being drafted.

WildJamie · Senior Member

Exactly... and in the mean time the following players from the first round of the 2004 draft are in the NHL, some making a significant impact:
Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker, Ladd, Olesz, Smid, Stafford, Radulov, Zajac, Wolski, Meszaros, Green.
The 4 goalies that were drafted in this draft are still all good prospects, but are not where these skaters are yet, and maybe never will be (Montoya, Dubnyk, Schwarz, Schneider).

LAKings · Senior Member

Schneider and Montoya were college boys. You can't compare a college draft pick to one out of junior or wherever. They are more often than not a longer time coming just because they want to further their education more.