Offseason activity (trade value wise) discussion..

HOTLANTA · Guru

Offseason activity (trade value wise) discussion..

devs · Senior Member

I believe in a multipronged approach...build with youth..fill holes with ufa...
jh devs

BluesGM · Guru

you see teams get in trouble with the cap almost every year, new jersey traded a veteran defenseman who made over 2 mill to the sharks with a 1st round pick for a career AHLer....

it's basically why teams like pittsburgh and washington have made the playoffs in recent years, by finishing near the bottom for a few years has allowed them to pick up guys like crosby and malkin... it sort of reminds me of how the teams in the WHL make their memorial cup runs... they look to shore up for one year at the cost of the next...

it really depends upon who the gm is dealing with in the end... if you're dealing with a team like chicago or atlanta who are close to the cap, then obviously his value won't be too high.... however, if you're offering a rebuilding team a piece to build around, then they might be willing to part with just less than value-wise...

BryceBruins · BRHL2 Co-Commish

HOTLANTA wrote:

at that time me and luke noticed lecavlier's contract being off and him being a 8.4 or 8.9 hit aswell.

Good catch, thank you

BryceBruins · BRHL2 Co-Commish

With the BRHl cap coming down big in season 6 (projected), I think you will see a major swing in power. If teams at the bottom of the standings are smart enough to keep their picks for the next couple years, build a team slowly. They will have tons of premier players available at discounts when teams get in cap trouble at the top. Teams like CHicago-Buffalo-Philly-Atlanta-Colorado are going to have huge dollars tied up in players, and while there teams will still be very good, and they are smart GMs, there will be value available on top end experienced players. The key is to leave yourself the financial flexibility.

Anaheim GM · Guru

BryceBruins wrote:

With the BRHl cap coming down big in season 6 (projected), I think you will see a major swing in power. If teams at the bottom of the standings are smart enough to keep their picks for the next couple years, build a team slowly. They will have tons of premier players available at discounts when teams get in cap trouble at the top. Teams like CHicago-Buffalo-Philly-Atlanta-Colorado are going to have huge dollars tied up in players, and while there teams will still be very good, and they are smart GMs, there will be value available on top end experienced players. The key is to leave yourself the financial flexibility.

I agree with Bryce 100%. Teams with young, cheaper players need to show some patience here as it will pay big dividends when the cap comes down.

In my mind, teams that are close to the cap now would be wise to factor in a discount to get rid of some big salaries before it is too late and they are forced to buy guys out.

PhoenixGM · Guru

Things will emulate the NHL:

Rebuilding:
- Weak for a few years, then the players start to come on and a team will be strong for a few years (Chicago, NHL).
- As the good players start getting bigger contracts the team will struggle to ice a complete lineup and will begin to go downhill (Ottawa, Buffalo)
- The choice must then be made to rebuild again or to try to work with what you have - rebuilding again will restart the cycle, whereas working with what you have will put the team into the category of "always mediocre"

Always Mediocre:
Team pieces together a decent lineup each year, but without ever finishing in the basement they are unable to land any top-end young cheap guys via draft. Mediocrity continues until:
a) Team has a down year finishes low and is able to land a good young player to revitalize them and allow them to challenge (essentially a mini-rebuild)
b) Team does surprisingly well but at season end is faced with inflated contracts from guys who had career years etc. (Montreal is feeling this now because of their performance the last two years)

Always crap:
Floundering team who either drafts poorly or trades away their draft picks (Toronto)

Always good:
Team who manages to get Johan Franzen in like the 10th round (Detroit)

The last two are less common as I feel most teams fall into category 1 or 2.

One major difference between the NHL and the BRHL is that BRHL teams are much more likely to move their top end picks, and thus good teams find a way to continue to rip teams off and land good young players (Atlanta) to maintain the balance between high and low salaries and be extremely competitive still... As a result, we see more teams falling into the "always crap" and "always good" categories because the good teams manage to trade their inflated salaries for top 5 picks - something that is much less likely to happen in the NHL.

Steve

Sabres_Luke · Guru

BryceBruins wrote:

If teams at the bottom of the standings are smart enough to keep their picks for the next couple years, build a team slowly. They will have tons of premier players available at discounts when teams get in cap trouble at the top.

I would agree with this 100% if we still had the old ELC contracts. That being said, the new top 15 picks are going to sign between 3 years and 1.5 and 3 years and 4 million. THat being said they're also going to have a bit worse ratings because they are in fact young.

Take Gagner for example he had a great rookie season and only got rated like 72-74 or something. He wasn't a big factor in the sim. Then you take an awful 2nd year and give him a rating around 71, we'll see how his 3rd year goes but you are getting a whole lot of nothing for the 1.7 million. Once he actually get ratings like 75-80 he is going to see a huge boost in his NHL pay to around 3.5-5 million (depending on how well he plays). This will make his 2nd contract not cheap at around 4 million per season.

Lets be honest, the Jeff Carter's and Zach Parises are the best case senarios of this and the old RFA signing system is out the window which allowed SJ and I to get great contracts out of them.

No one is cheap anymore, and if you think that getting Steven Stamkos will solve your problems? Think again. He makes 3.725 per season. He will rate decent next year but probably not great. His highest overall will likely be around 78 in his ELC contract level. I'm pretty some UFAs around 78 will go for that much. THen lets say Stamkos does have a Carter-like season in the next few years. GREAT but look at the number of how much you'll pay him. IF he makes anything close to what I think he will at 6 million a season for his second contract. You're going to be paying very close to that amount.

Then really all you get is a scenario like Anze Kopitar is in next season. Superstar player with a pretty big second contract. Still a supreme asset no doubt, but he is best case scenario. All I'm saying is if the best your going to get is players I already have...I don't see the striking advantage to top picks anymore. If ELCs were still at 850K, sure. But as it stands I am not trading into the top 5 for that reason.

HOTLANTA · Guru

Luke i disagree with you totally, sure their is the chance that a kid could regress like gagner, but the top top guys like Stamkos, Doughty, Schenn, Bogosian will have solid ratings for their 1.5 million this season.

In my opinion its not out of the question Doughty puts up 45points + and plays 25+ minutes next year in LA, and at 1.5 mill for the next two years he is an amazing amazing asset imo, stamkos, bogosian, schenn, filatov, hodgson have insane potential aswell.

Carter is yes good but is someone who took awhile to develop because IMO he isnt as good as any of those players..

Sabres_Luke · Guru

I disagree.

chimoty · Senior Member

I had such HIGH hopes seeing you not type "IMO"...then I read on.....

HOTLANTA wrote:

I said for teams in the top 8 bracket BRHL2, in my own opinion :)it will be imposssible to even expect = value for these assets..

IMO :(its going to have to be decided by a team with a high priced guy at like 8mill+ to move them for less than even value,

Hawks_G · Guru

I think it is all in how you manage your team. We have everyone signed and should be able to get within the cap for the upcoming year without major problems. We have a couple million to shed, but that can be done in numerous ways.

In the NHL, some said Lou was screwed when he was over the cap. Well, he made it just fine. Anaheim, well, I think that they are OK.

If you had to ask me about the ability for teams with cash crunches to move salary, I am sure that the teams that are good will get decent value out of their guys.

I would rather move Backstrom for a cheap starter than give Joe or Vinny away for free. I would rather play a rookie on defense at $450K than Skoula if I had to save the money.

Are we cutting salary, you bet. Will the big salaries be discounted? Probably so. Are they going to be free? No. And knowing the other GMs with some big salaries.....I am pretty sure that they will do OK as well.

Think about it, the market decides the market. If you are a Minnesota and you are interested in say...Brad Richards from Colorado, you can't sit there and say, well, since he is expensive salary wise, you can sit and wait and lowball Ross. Gareth from St. Louis is going to come and scoop him up and you are left out in the cold.

If I get really stuck, I will put Joe on waivers just so Rod can get him. :)

BryceBruins · BRHL2 Co-Commish

Hawks_G wrote:
If I get really stuck, I will put Joe on waivers just so Rod can get him. :)

Kinda a seniors only type deal eh

Hawks_G · Guru

Consider it the Grumpy Old Men discount... ;)

HOTLANTA · Guru

Hawks_G wrote:

Think about it, the market decides the market. If you are a Minnesota and you are interested in say...Brad Richards from Colorado, you can't sit there and say, well, since he is expensive salary wise, you can sit and wait and lowball Ross. Gareth from St. Louis is going to come and scoop him up and you are left out in the cold.

I disagree with this theory alot george. i think a team like minnesota could sit tight and no push for a thornton or lecavlier and sign a capable player in ufa for about half the price and keep the assets it would take to land the high priced guy to start with..

I think the top top teams have assembled SUCH talent pools that the mid tier and lower teams will be able to pluck players away from say Phi-Buf-Chi-Atl-Col-SJ in the coming years, or like u say be forced to take the crazy measure of waiving a pretty solid asset or two..