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Post Info TOPIC: STHS Test Season(s)


BRHL2 Co-Commish

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STHS Test Season(s)


A couple quick points. These are just doing the conversion with our current FHl ratings, so STHS does its own conversion thing with them, they are not adjusted or altered from what we have. I've ran a bunch of test seasons, what I mainly am looking for and trying to correlate with the settings is

a) Point/Goal leaders mimicking NHL
b) Goalie results mimicking NHL (as you can see I need to get GAA down)
c) Penalties leaders mimicking NHL in totals
d) stats like shots, gpg etc matching NHL


Test 1 settings
Goals - 36
Penalties - 45
Shots - 63
Hits - 40

http://geocities.com/bnshuck/Test1Ind.html
http://geocities.com/bnshuck/Test1TS.html
http://geocities.com/bnshuck/Test1sta.html
http://geocities.com/bnshuck/Test1LL.html

I'll update periodically when I have new results, and teh formulas, let me know your thoughts though.


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Seems the goals are a little high...

Also, what the hell is with Antropov?
Also, Lehtonen doesn't suck in STHS like he does in FHL
Also, Phoenix doesn't suck in STHS like we do in FHL

Can we switch to STHS now? LOL

Steve

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I regret trading Antropov now if that's how he scores in STHS....

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BRHL2 Co-Commish

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Actually its funny NYR and Phoenix are regularily in the top 3 teams in their conference in most sims on the STHS. Now remember that the ratings are a hybrid, but both teams being veteran laden appear to fare much better in the STHS

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http://geocities.com/bnshuck/Test2IL.html
http://geocities.com/bnshuck/Test2LL.html
http://geocities.com/bnshuck/Test2Sco.html
http://geocities.com/bnshuck/Test2Sta.html
http://geocities.com/bnshuck/Test2TS.html

I like everything the Avg Goals per game is 2.8 where the NHL was 2.72 in 07-08
Save% and GAA look good for the tenders as well. We had 20 guys in the sim go over 80 points for the year, there were 19 in the NHL last year. The same 2 players (AO & Malkin) cracked 100 points in the sim and NHL. Shots per game are high, but I think that may be necessary to keep the save percentages up. Hits look to be approriate for the top guys in terms of valume etc.

Again some of the ratings are different because they are merged, etc, but I think these settings wokred nicely for the basic sim.

Goals - 30
Penalties - 45
Shots - 55
Hits - 40

Thoughts???


One observation I am having with the injuries off and morale off, Im noticing that veteran laden clubs tend to sim quite well.

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like the goal scoring rates with that test season, seems pretty par for the course....

steve could get an amazing return if he decides to trade lehtonen.... 1.92GAA, .924SV%, 7 shutouts with a 63-11-6 record?!?!? even scored once and had 4 assists!

better overpay for lehtonen now! works great in the STHS!

-- Edited by BluesGM at 22:00, 2009-02-04

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Jeez...  Phoenix goes from 4th from last to 1st in the league?  Wow...

Good thing I've got re-enforcements coming!  Michael Frolik, Jakub Vorachek, Mark Giordano, Fabian Brunnstrom...  (+ possibly 2 of Stamkos/Doughty/Schenn/Bogosian/Filatov...)  With some good UFA acquisitions, Anaheim could also be on the up!


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Seems like we've got a long ways to go.

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Sabres_Luke wrote:

Seems like we've got a long ways to go.



What does that even mean?

The stats seem pretty good.



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I'll tell you what it even means..


Your Phx team isn't close to a top team, it's a boarderline playoff team at best. Any sim that allows your team to win the president's trophy, and be 16 points above the next closest team in the conference, and teams like chicago Sj ect, then there is something drastically wrong.

It's not even a matter of how it effects myself because I finished 1 and 2 in both. Bryce gave us a platform to state our opinion- there's mine.

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I tend to agree with Luke...  We have a ways to go.

Look at poor Calgary - they go from being a playoff team in FHL to a 35 point season in the BRHL (yikes!)

Back-up goalie stats seems to be out of wack too - they are nearly all posting huge numbers.

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2007-08 - missed playoffs (29th overall)
2008-09 - missed playoffs (26th overall)
2009-10 - 7th place in Western Conference (99 pts), Conference Semi-Finals
2010-11 - missed playoffs (19th overall)
2011-12 



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Sabres_Luke wrote:

I'll tell you what it even means..


Your Phx team isn't close to a top team, it's a boarderline playoff team at best. Any sim that allows your team to win the president's trophy, and be 16 points above the next closest team in the conference, and teams like chicago Sj ect, then there is something drastically wrong.

It's not even a matter of how it effects myself because I finished 1 and 2 in both. Bryce gave us a platform to state our opinion- there's mine.



Thanks for clearing that up, your initial post was not very clear.

While I am surprised as the next guy that my team simmed so well in these test seasons, I don't entirely agree with basing our evaluation on team performance.  There are so many vairables that affect (effect?) team performance (chemistry, randomness, etc..) that it makes it difficult to evaluate based on which teams ended up where in the standings.

I like Bryces approach of looking at goals socred, and looking at how specific players are performing.  While there are still variables associated with these evaluations, there is less variability (I think) than when looking at team performance.

As for the backup goalie stats - I haven't had a chance to look yet, but are they wacked because they don't play much because injuries were turned off?



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I might point out that Bryce has stated that

"Again some of the ratings are different because they are merged, etc, but I think these settings worked nicely for the basic sim."

Maybe the ratings for Calgary were the worst possible while Phoenix's had their best? Sundin wouldn't rerate nicely now, but he would have been great during this season....

Calgary may be a playoff team in FHL, but on paper they shouldn't be.... No offence intended Kevin, but if we're basing the settings for Bryce to use, then we should look at the criteria he's hoping to match, not who wins the league....

9 players had over 100 points, almost 50 players hit 80 points.... although save percentage was around the .910-.915 mark, GAA was in the mid to high 2's.... this isn't realistic although standings were basically the same....

In test season 2 the points were similar to those in the NHL, remember that the goal of this league is to mimic the NHL, and part of that is having surprises.... boston leading the league, ottawa and pittsburgh out of the playoffs... so although phoenix winning the league is unlikely, it's a possibility

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Exactly my point Gareth.

Really the standings have no relevance as far as what I'm trying to work with, I merely am posting them as something "fun" to look at. And yes, Phoenix is simming retardedly well, however, I have made the disclaimer

These ratings are flawed and inaccurate as they are all merged from the FHL ratings, when new ratings are done, more test sims will be ran to try and replicate performances, but honestly the standings are the last thing I care about while simming, its player performances, and trying to hit the same averages as the NHl that is my, and should be your concerns.

With backups I would assume that because injuries are off, and starters are in every game, all those stats are in relief duty which typically has inflated numbers (one oway or the other). Ill try and run another test today and see what else happens.

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BluesGM wrote:

I regret trading Antropov now if that's how he scores in STHS....



That would be the sim from an entire season with Alfredsson and Vanek as his linemates, with Gonchar and Ference dishing the puck on the back end. 

But, feel free to make me a trade offer, but I will want equal value for the 105 point producing machine!



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